Macron has pulled victory out of the ashes of defeat

The Left is howling at the choice of Barnier as PM. But it’s bought the President crucial time

If the absolute rage being voiced by the New Popular Front (NPF) – the French Left-wing electoral alliance dominated (in words, anyway) by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed – is any indication, Emmanuel Macron, at the end of his 51 days’ meandering search for a prime minister, has pulled a real blinder.
It’s not that Michel Barnier, of Brexit fame, looks and sounds terribly exciting. But that’s not a bug, that’s a feature. A bit boring, especially for a Gaullist politician, is an effective shield against being thrown out immediately by a vote of no-confidence in France’s new, unworkable Parliament, with its three blocs of irreconcilable MPs. Not having been seen on the frankly unedifying national political scene in recent years is also an asset.
Barnier was last a Cabinet minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, and left office in 2009 to become the vice president of the European Commission. He has been foreign secretary under Jacques Chirac, as well as a Senator, earlier an MP, for his home département of Savoie. His point of pride was the success of the 1992 Winter Olympics held in and around his home town of Albertville, which he co-organised with the great ski champion Jean-Claude Killy. In short, come the Revolution, it’s not his head that will get chopped off first, and carried atop a pike. This is definitely a plus after seven years of Macron’s very own brand of narcissistic provocations.
The Mélenchonista Left (and their cowed Socialist and Green allies – they know France Unbowed can’t win elections alone, but can effectively spoil their candidates’ chances in hundreds of cities and constituencies) are incandescent that, after they swore to table a no-confidence vote on any PM picked out of Macron’s hat, the embattled President discounted them altogether, and started horsetrading with the one silent partner that was amenable, Marine Le Pen herself.
She has not spoken since the Macron-inspired “Republican Front” robbed her young deputy Jordan Bardella of victory in the second round of July’s legislative elections. (With 11 million votes to the Left’s 7 million and the Macronistas 6.7, she would have won more MPs than Keir Starmer under the UK’s first past the post system.) She nixed the two former PM frontrunners, Bernard Cazeneuve (a reasonable, competent Socialist who’d also been vetoed by his “friends” in the NFP) and the Républicain regional baron Xavier Bertrand, who is her personal enemy in the Northern region of Hauts-de-France. She said she wanted a prime minister who would not “despise” her voters and her party.
Barnier filled the bill. It helped that, in his short-lived run for the presidency of France in 2022, he ran on a strong anti-unchecked immigration platform, calling for a four-year moratorium on legal entries onto French soil, as well as a referendum to ask the French what number of legal immigrants they would agree to. Barnier has also made noises on altering European laws allowing free movement within the Schengen space, which, coming from such a former top Eurocrat, carries weight.
The Left is howling that this is essentially allowing Le Pen to play a role on the political scene, making a mockery of the Front Républicain. But that’s the only hand left to play for Macron, who from several accounts hadn’t entirely made up his mind by Thursday morning. The decision was forced by his powerful Chief of Staff at the Elysée for the last seven years, the discreet Alexis Kohler, who for weeks had been sounding out French business and civil society grandees on Barnier, and gained their approval. Barnier’s steadfastness during the Brexit talks, and mastery of detail, helped clinch the way. Stability is what the French have lacked since June; stability is what they, and the country’s economy – faced with a 5.6 per cent of GDP deficit – need most. Revolutionary posturing must wait and Macron has persuaded himself that he has pulled a victory out of the ashes of defeat.